Native American Lands – Page 2 – American Communities Project

Education

Universities As Economic Powerhouses for Communities

by Dante Chinni June 05, 2025

The nation’s attitudes toward higher education have grown complicated in recent years. Increasingly, many Americans have become skeptical of the importance of a bachelor’s degree, particularly Americans who lean Republican in their politics.

And the Trump administration has largely elevated that skepticism, cutting or revoking already-issued federal grants in a variety of areas, including medical research to the tune of more than $160 billion. At the same time, the administration is threatening deeper cuts and criticizing diversity, equity, and inclusion programs at institutions.

But the nation’s college and universities are more than just educational hubs for the next generation, they are economic drivers in small towns and big urban centers around the country. And an analysis from the American Communities Project and the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan public policy organization, finds two points are generally true:

Communities with a college or a university tend to have higher per capita GDPs than neighboring communities.
Communities with big, “tier 1” research universities that receive big government grants, generally do even better with their per capita GDP than similar communities.

The data suggest that the spin-off commerce created by the schools has an outsized impact on their communities, big and small, all over the country. And cutting funds to the nation’s institutions of higher education is likely to have larger impacts that will be felt on and off campuses in the months and years ahead.

What Is a College Town?

Colleges and universities don’t exist as islands; communities grow up around them to serve them. Some of these communities are considered College Towns in the ACP — places where the college or university, or sometimes more than one, defines the locale.

There is a range of College Towns in the ACP rubric. Some are populous counties where one big university dominates, such as Boulder County, Colorado, home of the University of Colorado. Some are smaller counties where a smaller school has a disproportionate impact, such as Buncombe County, North Carolina, home of UNC Ashville. And some house several smaller campuses, such as Dauphin County, Pennsylvania, home of Harrisburg University, Penn State-Harrisburg and a satellite campus for Temple.

But overall, the data shows a clear story. The College Towns in the American Communities Project have a higher per capita GDP than the counties around them. And the effects are even larger for “tier 1” research schools, the 187 institutions that are classified as having “very high research spending and doctorate production” in the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education.

In College Towns without “tier 1” schools (communities with smaller schools or collections of small schools), the per capita GDP was more than $7,000 higher than it was in surrounding non-College Town counties.

And in College Towns that are home to a big research schools, the impacts are much bigger. The per capita GDP in those counties is $16,000 higher than the surrounding non-College Town counties

Regardless, the takeaways from the data are hard to ignore: College Towns tend to be economic drivers for their broader regions. Some of this business serves students — restaurants, bars, stores — but part of it is the impact of the institutions themselves. Colleges and universities hire a lot more than professors. There are student support staff, maintenance staff, HR staff, and other university workers.

When the federal government cuts money to those institutions, all those employees take a hit. Less scholarship money and grants may also lead to fewer students, which means local businesses suffer.

“Tier 1” Research Schools

And, of course, there are colleges and universities that exist outside the ACP’s College Towns category. There are colleges in Big Cities, big dense Urban Suburbs, and urban fringe Exurbs.

To understand the impact of the nation’s big research universities (the schools facing bigger cuts from the Trump administration), the ACP and EIG looked at per capita GDP in communities with and without “tier 1” research schools across the ACP types.

Again, the data are largely clear.

Those high-research schools are in nine of the ACP’s 15 types, and in most cases communities with such an institution do much better than their non-college counterparts.

The “tier 1” difference in per capita GDP in the Exurbs is +$17,000.
In the Big Cities, the difference is +$29,000.
The difference in the African American South is close to +$40,000.
The two outliers here are Middle Suburbs and Hispanic Centers, which both have a negative “tier 1” difference (-$6,000 and -$33,000, respectively). However, those numbers are drawn from very small samples, three total schools in those two types.

To be clear, in a lot of these communities, the universities are smaller parts of a much bigger story. The fact that these communities were not labeled College Towns is an indication that the schools are not their dominant trait.

Still, the fact that those with big research schools tend to do much better suggests that having a big research school in your backyard pays dividends or at least is part of having a vibrant economic community.

Going Forward

These data may not change how a lot of people feel about the state of higher education in America. The great battles over “woke-ism” and whether college is “worth it” will continue. Like many other issues in the nation right now, much is being driven by cultural divides — what people on different sides of the political spectrum think they are supposed to believe.

And, it should be noted, these latest political headwinds for colleges and universities are coming at a time when many smaller, mid-tier schools are struggling with enrollment declines as a demographic cliff looms for the U.S. college-age population. Those drops may be lessening the potency of mid-tier colleges as economic drivers.

But the numbers here indicate that colleges and universities and College Towns still play a significant economic role in the nation beyond their part in educating the next generation. They are economic drivers in local economies scattered across the country, and cuts to them will have likely have unforeseen impacts that will be felt all over.

African American South Aging Farmlands Big Cities College Towns Evangelical Hubs Exurbs Graying America Hispanic Centers LDS Enclaves Middle Suburbs Military Posts Native American Lands Rural Middle America Urban Suburbs Working Class Country

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Economics

Is a New Manufacturing Golden Age Possible in America?

by Dante Chinni May 20, 2025

The current White House has made many bold promises, but near the top of the list is the pledge to reverse the decline in the nation’s manufacturing sector and usher in a new “golden age” in it.

When you look at the data, however, that task looks to be remarkably tall to the point of being almost impossible. The American Communities Project looked at U.S. Census data since 2010 and found that manufacturing jobs have actually increased in the United States overall and in nine of the 15 community types. Urban and suburban places have seen most of the gains.

The declines have come “per capita.” That is, manufacturing jobs have become a smaller percentage of the workforce in nearly every community type in that time. But labor force experts believe much of that loss is likely attributable to automation.

Manufacturing in the ACP

Data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey finds there were about 15.6 million jobs in the manufacturing sector in 2010 and about 15.9 million in 2023, the latest data available for all counties in the United States. The biggest increase came in the Exurbs in the ACP, which saw an increase of about 144,000 manufacturing jobs in that time.

Close behind were the Urban Suburbs, which added about 141,000 jobs in the sector in the same time frame. Then came the College Towns, which added some 62,000 manufacturing jobs.

There are some big caveats to those numbers. First, all those places saw manufacturing decline as a percentage of total employment in this time period. Second, remember that in 2010 the United States was just emerging from the Great Recession, so some of the increases may be due to relatively low figures in the 2010 data.

Furthermore, the Middle Suburbs, the blue-collar communities largely around the Great Lakes that have become crucial in elections in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, have seen a much smaller increase of only about 31,000 manufacturing jobs in that time, not enough to keep up with population growth.

Still an increase in jobs is an increase in jobs and with that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the larger point in the data: the power of urbanicity.

The six community types that have seen an actual decline in manufacturing jobs since 2010 are all rural: the African American South, Aging Farmlands, Evangelical Hubs, Native American Lands, Rural Middle America, and Working Class Country.

Automation and Costs

There is a lot going on behind those declines. First, the working-age population in many of those communities is growing slowly or even declining. But beyond that, some of those declines may be due to the broader long-term changes in manufacturing, including a move toward automation that requires larger capital expenditures on big machines that do the work humans used to do.

Over the last 40-plus years, there has been a steep drop in manufacturing employment. In 1979, more than 19 million people had jobs in manufacturing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which offers a slightly different measure of manufacturing jobs. By 2024, that figure was about 13 million people.

And remember that drop happened as the population of the United States grew by more than 100 million — from about 225 million to more than 330 million.

Add those numbers up and it looks like a massive decline for manufacturing. But a funny thing happens when you look at the data differently. When examining manufacturing output as a percentage of real GDP, that is GDP adjusted for inflation, the numbers look fairly flat, over a very long period.

Ivan Illan, chief investment officer for the firm AWAIM, notes that since the 1940s, manufacturing has contributed about the same percentage to U.S. GDP, somewhere around 12%. Economists at the St. Louis Federal Reserve wrote in 2015 that the percentage had bounced between 11.3% and 13.6% in that time. (The number was a little lower in 2024, about 10%, but that was largely due to the impact of inflation.)

How’s that relatively flat number possible? Manufacturing has become more efficient, and it has become cheaper to produce products made in the United States “likely because of automation.”

Challenges Ahead

To be clear, the message here is not, “Well then, everything is rosy.” The losses in manufacturing employment are real, they disproportionately hit the more rural communities in the ACP, and that momentum isn’t likely going to stop.

For years now, much of the discussion around manufacturing losses has focused on the loss of “small manufacturing.” Those are the kinds of firms that were once big job providers everywhere, but especially in small rural communities. The ACP has visited those places and seen communities dealing with the losses. Big capital investments can be hard in small communities.

Taken together, the data suggests bringing back a “golden age” of manufacturing — or at least manufacturing employment — is going to be especially difficult in rural America and, frankly, difficult in the United States overall.

Ultimately, there may not be a lot of manufacturing jobs to bring back because many of our ideas about manufacturing — men standing along an assembly line doing repetitive tasks — are increasingly outdated. The world has changed. Turning back the clock on history may make for good politics, but it’s a less workable strategy in reality.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Culture

As Politics and Consumerism Clash, a Look at Tesla Dealerships Across Communities

by Dante Chinni April 28, 2025

The line between consumerism and politics has become increasingly blurry in recent years — and that can create problems for business owners who hold strong political beliefs at odds with their customers. Just ask Elon Musk.

Before he was dominating the headlines as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk was a businessman and owner of well-known companies such as the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and the aerospace company Space Exploration Technologies. But before aiding the Trump White House, Musk was probably best known as the owner of the electric car company Tesla, which has also been making headlines of late … for the wrong reasons.

Tesla’s income dropped by a startling 71% in the first quarter of 2025, and one big reason is thought to be Musk’s role with team Trump. In response, Musk announced he will spend less time at the White House and more time trying to get Tesla back on track. But it may not be that simple.

In many ways, the data suggest that the two sides of Musk — the businessman and the political force — are in conflict.

Recent polling data from Gallup makes it pretty clear that the electric car consumer base and the Trump voter base look very different. The Gallup numbers found that people who own or would consider buying an electric vehicle are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans (71% versus 31%). They are also more likely to have a college degree than not (61% versus 46%), and more likely to make more than $100,000 a year than they are to make less than $50,000 (56% versus 47%). All are data points at odds with Trump’s blue-collar base.

Tesla Dealers in the ACP

And viewed through the American Communities Project’s 15 types, the problem is even more clear. The geographic tribalism that has come to define the nation presents special challenges for Tesla. (This set of data comes from an analysis the ACP did for Business Insider.)

Of the roughly 275 Tesla dealerships in the United States, more than three-quarters (213) are based in the Big Cities, Urban Suburbs, College Towns, and African American South, according to data from ScrapeHero. Of the 15 community types in the ACP, those were the only four that did not vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 election.

And the two community types with the most Tesla dealerships by far are the Big Cities and Urban Suburbs. There are almost 200 Tesla dealerships in those community types alone, and Democrat Kamala Harris won them both by double digits last November — 27 percentage points and 13 percentage points, respectively.

That’s not a huge surprise, of course. Electric cars remain expensive, and their makers are still trying to grow market share. It makes sense that Musk would want to locate the dealerships in very populous areas where households have higher incomes.

To be clear, the politics of the Big Cities and Urban Suburbs are not uniform. Republicans live in those places, too. Even in Washington, D.C., the bluest of Big City communities, some 6% of voters (about 21,000 people) cast ballots for Trump in 2024. That’s not insignificant.

And, of course, people can travel to shop for a car. The dealership can be a few counties away if the buyer is motivated. But the data show the challenge of doing business in a country where consumption has become part of the political divide.

The demographics behind the ACP show that Musk would have been better off locating more Tesla dealerships in Exurbs. They seem to fit the electric vehicle consumer profile better than other right-leaning communities. Trump won the Exurbs by 14 percentage points, and those places tend to have higher median household incomes and more college degrees than other Trump-friendly communities.

Consumerism in the ACP

The impact of the Trump/Musk bromance on Tesla is not exactly a surprising development. It’s simply the latest example of politics impacting consumer behavior. Before Tesla there was Bud Light. There was the dust-up over Disney. Even looking at someone’s blue jeans can be revealing, we explored in The Wall Street Journal.

But Tesla’s situation is more problematic in some ways. One can sell beer or jeans anywhere. It’s a question of shelf space. And TV and movies can find their audiences where they live over any number of devices and platforms. A car dealership is the definition of a brick-and-mortar experience. Customers need to come in, have a seat, take a test drive. Shopping is done in person.

If you’re a car company and your outlets are in the wrong place, the fix is more complicated — especially if you are a newer car company without an extensive dealer footprint.

Of course, the current Tesla situation is unlikely to be the last time that consumer choices bump into politics. Much of the ACP’s work focuses on how different communities are developing different cultures within the United States, and consumerism is clearly a big part of those cultural divides.

Increasingly, shoppers are bringing their politics with them to the store — and to the online marketplace. The ACP has a vast collection of consumer data from MRI-Simmons, the consumer research firm, which we will continue to explore in the next year.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Environment

Americans Across Communities Want Focus on Climate Change and the Environment

by Ari Pinkus April 22, 2025

For the 55th annual Earth Day on April 22, EARTHDAY.org outlines an ambitious goal: triple the amount of clean electricity by 2030. Meanwhile, President Trump signed an executive order on April 8 to block climate change policies at the state level. As Reuters reported: “The order directed the U.S. attorney general to identify state laws that address climate change, ESG initiatives, environmental justice and carbon emissions, and to take action to block them.”

Amid the cross purposes, the American Communities Project sought to delve deeper into American attitudes on climate change and the environment by examining a series of questions from the latest MRI-Simmons consumer survey taken from September 2021 to August 2023 and broken down into our 15 community types in fall 2024.

The results show that Americans see the environment and climate change as very important concerns to address. Across communities, residents agree that climate change is a serious threat and overwhelmingly believe the government should pay more attention to environmental issues. By and large they don’t believe people who are worried about the environment are overreacting. And a significant majority in all community types say when it comes to preserving the environment, helping to preserve nature is very important.

On business aspects, there is less convergent thinking. For example, residents are about split on whether any product that pollutes the environment should be banned, while more than a third say a company’s environmental record is important in their purchasing decisions.

Broadly Seen as a Threat

Principally, a significant majority of Americans said they somewhat or completely agree that climate change is a serious threat. Among the community types, the lowest percentages were in the rural Evangelical Hubs and Working Class Country communities at 61% and 63%, respectively. These figures were seen as slightly below average for their rural populations in the South and Appalachia. All other community types were in the mid-60s to mid-70s.

More Government Attention Wanted

Overall, 76% of Americans said they somewhat or completely agree that the government should pay more attention to environmental issues. There was not much deviation among the ACP’s 15 community types, and all 15 fell in the average range for their populations. In Big Cities and Urban Suburbs, the highs were 80% and 79% respectively. In Evangelical Hubs, Working Class Country, and Rural Middle America, community types that are often wary of government intervention, the percentages reached the low 70s.

These new findings track with what Jennifer Marlon of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the Yale School of the Environment told us four years ago after analyzing surveys from the Climate Change in the American Mind project: “Perhaps surprisingly, however, majorities of Americans in every state think citizens and corporations should do more to address global warming. And majorities in all but three states (Wyoming, North Dakota, and West Virginia) think Congress should do more to address global warming as well.”

Environmental Worries Are Not an Overreaction

On the flip side, overreaction to environmental worries is not a shared concern. Just 27% of Americans said they somewhat or completely agree that people who are worried about the environment are overreacting. Agreeing reached the low 30s in Evangelical Hubs and Working Class Country — considered above average for their populations. The African American South and Native American Lands, rural communities struggling with entrenched socioeconomic and demographic divides, were also above average in the 30s.

Majority Agree on Importance of Preserving Nature

At the national level, 64% said helping to preserve nature is very important, and just 11 points separated the 15 community types. Again, Evangelical Hubs and Working Class Country were at the low end with 57% each, while Big Cities were at the high end at 68%. Notably, in both Evangelical Hubs and Working Class Country communities, the percentages with adequate access to locations for physical activity were also at the low end at 48% and 53%, respectively.

Divide on Banning Products that Pollute

Nationally, 54% said they somewhat or completely agree that any product that pollutes the environment should be banned. A split is evident within and between community types, running from 48% in the LDS Enclaves to 58% in the Big Cities.

Just 40% nationally said they somewhat or completely agree that “a company's environmental record is important to me in my purchasing decisions.” This was most voiced by residents in the Big Cities and least in the Evangelical Hubs. Notably, just eight points separated the 15 community types. All places stood above 33%, and none deviated from average range given their populations.

Valuing the Environment

As Americans commemorate Earth Day this week, MRI-Simmons data validate climate change as a serious threat and the environment as a key societal value but show the limits of these concerns on individual purchase-making.

African American South Aging Farmlands Big Cities College Towns Evangelical Hubs Exurbs Hispanic Centers LDS Enclaves Middle Suburbs Military Posts Native American Lands Rural Middle America Urban Suburbs Working Class Country

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Economics

Ownership of Stocks, Mutual Funds, and Retirement Accounts Across Communities

by Dante Chinni and Ari Pinkus April 11, 2025

Another day, another rollercoaster for the stock market when the averages of the major indices go up and down. But while media organizations have focused intently on the fate of the Dow (and the Nasdaq and the S&P), the underlying question has been how many Americans have a vested interest?

The answer: It depends on where you’re looking, but probably less than you might think. Or that’s the answer according to consumer survey data from MRI-Simmons and the American Communities Project.

A little more than a quarter of Americans say they have money in a mutual fund, 24% say they have a 401(k) account, 5% say they have a 403(b), and 14% say they own stock. But the numbers vary dramatically in the ACP’s 15 community types and some of the responses raise new questions of understanding.

For instance, most mutual funds contain stocks as do most 401(k) accounts, so the people who own those things likely own stocks in some form. It’s possible, maybe even likely, that most people do not know the exact holdings of their retirement accounts.

Still, the numbers here offer a guide to understanding who in America may be watching the markets with some hesitation in early 2025.

Mutual Funds

Overall, 27% of Americans say they are invested in a mutual fund. But the figures are as low at 19% in the African American South and Evangelical Hubs and as high as 31% in the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs.

Mutual funds are not exclusively stock vehicles, of course. They are portfolios of investments that can holds stocks as well as bonds and other investments. But most of them usually contain at least some stocks.

And the community type numbers here follow a similar pattern that we see on other forms for investments. People in the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs are those most likely to be invested in a mutual fund. Those communities also have the highest percentage of people bachelor’s degrees and the highest median household incomes.

The Middle Suburbs are the next highest among the types and that likely has something to do with the historical employment in those blue-collar communities mostly based in the Industrial Midwest. The employers in those places were often larger manufacturing companies that gave their workers, many of whom were in unions, good benefits. The ACP sees similar trends around health insurance in these places — they are usually a little above the national average for coverage even though their incomes and educational attainment levels are not especially high.

Stocks

The number for stock ownership, 14%, is likely lower than most people would expect, especially considering the continuous coverage of the stock market gyrations in recent days. Even in the Urban Suburbs, where the stock ownership number is highest in these data, the figure only sits at 17%. And in five of the 15 community types, the percentage for stock ownership is in the single digits.

But the assumption is that these data refer to people being aware of owning a single stock — such as owning shares of, say, Apple. And despite stories about day traders or people who are constantly on their phones putting in buy and sell orders, these data suggest that behavior is limited to a small number of people.

Again, the community types leading the way here are the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs.

Retirement Plans: 401(k) and 403(b)

Retirement accounts, where many Americans invest to safeguard their long-term future, have been hit hard since the cascading tariff announcements. As the ACP zeros in on options available to workers at for-profit businesses, 401(k)s, and tax-exempt organizations, 403(b)s, it’s evident that more affluent communities have generally been more exposed to the market instability.

Drilling down beyond the 24% of Americans who said they have a 401(k), the LDS Enclaves — Mormon-dominated communities in the interior West where there is a heavy presence of technology firms — came in highest among the 15 types at 28%, considered above average. Unsurprisingly, affluent Exurbs and Urban Suburbs rounded out the top three at 27% and 26%, respectively. The two suburban communities’ index scores were on the upper end of average for their populations. Lower-income, rural communities of varying diversity were at the bottom of the pack: Native American Lands at 19%; African American South, Hispanic Centers, and Working Class Country at 21%; and Evangelical Hubs at 20%. Larger for-profit companies that offer such plans are scarce in these parts.

Meanwhile, just 5% nationally said they owned any 403(b) accounts, which are frequently offered to nonprofit and government employees, including those who work in public schools. Slightly higher than the national rate were Urban Suburbs, Exurbs, and LDS Enclaves at 6%. But so were Middle Suburbs in the Rust Belt, where globalization at the turn of the century led to much business stagnation and greater employment in tax-exempt organizations. The percentages with 403(b) accounts in the Middle Suburbs, Urban Suburbs, and Exurbs were all considered above average for their populations, while the percentages in Working Class Country, Native American Lands, African American South, Evangelical Hubs, and Hispanic Centers were all much below average.

The Point

If there is a big takeaway in all these numbers, it may be that the media’s focus on covering the daily rises and falls on Wall Street misses the larger story of what is going in Main Street, at least for now.

As the great tariff fight begins, the market indices may just be proxies for the psychological state of the people who play the markets. After all, right now the Dow and the S&P and Nasdaq are not really reacting to tariffs — they are reacting to the idea of tariffs. They bounce up and down with the hopes and fears of the investor class.

The better time to keep an eye on Wall Street is probably in the months ahead. If the tariff fight lingers without a real conclusion for months, the markets will become more than a space for speculative thinking about what could happen to the U.S. economy, they will be space to see how people are responding to what actually happens.

At that point, the moves in the market won’t just be affecting people who are invested, they will be broader signs about the state of the economy as a whole.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Religion

For Americans, Faith in Private Is Strong, While Religion in Public Deeply Divides

by Ari Pinkus March 10, 2025

As Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists celebrate the ageless rituals of Easter, Passover, Ramadan, Holi, and Vesak this sacred season, new research shows a cleaving between how Americans regard religion in their private lives versus the public sphere. Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Study of some 36,000 U.S. adults shows 62% of Americans identify as Christian; 7% identify with other religions, including Jewish (2%), Muslim, Buddhist, and Hindu (about 1% each); 29% are unaffiliated with a religion. While religious-secular diversity can be a fraught subject in America, individual faith remains a vital force around the country — and what faith means to individuals can vary greatly.

The American Communities Project’s analysis of MRI-Simmons consumer research collected from households between September 2021 and August 2023, and segmented into our 15 community types last fall, shows that Americans’ personal religious beliefs and daily practices are central to their lives. This is true no matter where they call home.

However, Americans are much less connected to organized religion, as seen in the relatively low numbers of service attendance. At the national level, a little more than a third of residents said they somewhat or completely agree that they attend religious services regularly, and even in the most religious kinds of communities, there was no majority agreement.

What’s more, as the new Trump administration establishes a White House Faith Office and moves forward on “defending religious liberty,” there are real divides on the role religion should play in the broader society. Nationally, Americans are split down the middle on whether religion should be the pillar of our society and whether the government should support prayer in school. Divides within and across the 15 community types are evident on these questions as well. The strongest support for religion’s prominence in public life is found in rural southern, midwestern, and Appalachian communities: the African American South, Evangelical Hubs, and Working Class Country. Their collective population is about 34 million.

Individual Beliefs and Practices

A clear majority of Americans, 58%, said holding to religious faith and belief is very important (as opposed to the two other given options: average importance at 12%, and not important at 29%). This significant majority view spreads across the 15 community types, ranging between 55% and 70% depending on the place. The African American South, Evangelical Hubs concentrated in the South and Midwest, and Working Class Country in Appalachia came in at the highest rates. There was no straight urban-rural divide on this statement. Aging Farmlands and Big Cities were both at 57%. Mormon-dominated LDS Enclaves and affluent Urban Suburbs were both at 55%. All four were considered in the average range.

Similarly, 58% nationally said they somewhat or completely agree that prayer is part of their daily life (though how they define “prayer” is not specified). The pattern here was a near mirror image of the results on religious faith and belief. Pointedly, in the ACP/Ipsos 2024 survey, a majority of African American South residents said their faith gives them hope for the future no matter what is happening around them. It was the only community type to reach above 50% on this statement about hope.

Little Embrace of Organized Religion

When it comes to organized religion, however, the numbers look different. Nationally, 36% reported that they somewhat or completely agree that they attend religious services regularly. Only three community types were considered above average, reaching the low to mid-40s: the African American South, Evangelical Hubs, and Working Class Country. Rural-urban and religious-secular divides were not always evident. For example, 35% of residents in both Big Cities and LDS Enclaves said they somewhat or completely agree that they attend services regularly.

Religion in Society

And the question of the role religion should play in American society really divides the country, according to these MRI-Simmons findings. Overall, 49% said they somewhat or completely agree that religion should be the pillar of our society. Clear majorities agreed in the African American South (62%), Evangelical Hubs (59%), and Working Class Country (59%). Military Posts, known for their conservative leanings, were also considered above average at 54%. The 11 other community types — encompassing a diverse mix of rural, suburban, and urban landscapes and lifestyles — were split down the middle or nearly so.

Similarly, Americans divided down the middle on the statement: “The government should support prayer in school.” Nationally, 50% of Americans said they somewhat or completely agree with the statement. Again, clear majorities in the African American South, Evangelical Hubs, and Working Class Country said they somewhat or completely agree. It was much more divided in other rural and urban-oriented communities: Rural Middle America, Native American Lands, Hispanic Centers, College Towns, Aging Farmlands, Graying America, Exurbs, LDS Enclaves, and Middle Suburbs. Notably, in some cases, more and less religiously diverse communities expressed similar views.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Culture

How Men and Women Divide on Hope for the Future of the United States

by Dante Chinni March 05, 2025

There are many well-known divides that define America in 2025 — red/blue, urban/rural, college/non-college — but the split along gender lines has become a dominant theme in the nation’s political and cultural discourse. National data show men and women view a range of issues, from health care to the economy, differently. But, as we recently noted, the gender gap doesn’t look the same everywhere.

To better understand how men and women see the United States more broadly, the American Communities Project analyzed male and female responses around hope for the future of the country in all 15 community types from our 2024 survey with Ipsos.

Two clear points jump out of the data.

First, on the whole, women seem to have a less hopeful view than men about the direction of the nation, both short- and long-term. That shows up in most of the community types and very different kinds of places, from the Aging Farmlands to the College Towns.

Second, the gender divides look very different in the community types. In some places, men and women seem to be largely in agreement about the near-term and long-term hopes for the country. In others, there were wide differences, and there are some where men are more dour.

The conclusion in the data seems to be the gender gap can vary greatly depending on where you live and your different cultural, social, and economic experiences. The charts below show the gender differences by community type on people’s hopefulness about the nation’s short-term and long-term future. Negative numbers mean people were less hopeful than hopeful.

Where Women Are Less Hopeful

For the most part, women in the American Communities Project/Ipsos 2024 survey were less hopeful than men about the nation’s short-term future (that was true in 11 of the 15 types) and long-term future (where it was true for 12 of the 15 types).

That finding was true in rural communities, such as Graying America, as well as communities with larger and younger populations, such as the Exurbs.

Some differences between men and women were larger than others (more on that below), but the relative consistency suggests that something bigger is surfacing in the data.

One could point to recent developments in the country on abortion, since the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and removed the constitutional right to an abortion. But some community types where women are less hopeful, such as the LDS Enclaves, are not especially driven by a pro-abortion rights stance.

Also, not all the community types where women are less hopeful than men are deeply pessimistic. For instance, in the Aging Farmlands, women are far less hopeful about the “next few years” than men are, but they are still very narrowly positive overall.

In general, the data suggest that women are, at the very least, more cautious than men about expressing hope for the future.

Where Men Are Less Hopeful

However, the point about women is not true everywhere. There are a few communities where men are less hopeful than women about the future of the nation — short-term and long-term — and some clearer trends emerge in the data.

In two community types, the African American South and Working Class Country, men expressed more negative views than women. While the two types are quite different in racial and ethnic composition, they have socioeconomic and cultural traits in common. Both are full of rural and remote communities, have relatively low levels of educational attainment, and are on the lower end of the median-household-income scale.

They are also places where jobs can be hard to find, which may be especially true for men. The small manufacturing jobs that were once a part of life here have dried up.

The numbers for Working Class Country truly stand out. That’s the only community type where men were a net negative on hope about the nation in the short-term and long-term. In both time frames, 53% of the men in Working Class Country said they were “not hopeful” about the future of the United States.

In Rural Middle America and the Military Posts, men said they were not hopeful about the nation in the short-term, but more hopeful in the long-term. As this survey was conducted in 2024, that may have had something to do with politics. Both community types went heavily for Donald Trump in the presidential election, and it could be their “short-term” view of the United States was about then-President Joe Biden.

The Sharpest Divides

In the charts above, a few community types stand out for conveying big differences in how men and women feel about the future of the United States — short-term and long-term.

Consider the College Towns. When it comes to the long-term future of the United States, women were decidedly negative — 55% were not hopeful about it. But 56% of the men said they felt positive about the nation’s long-term future.

The Military Posts, also home to many young people, saw a similar split. Among women in those communities, 56% said they were not hopeful about the nation’s long-term future, while only 43% said they were hopeful. Among men in the Military Posts, the numbers were much closer: 51% said they were hopeful, while 49% said they were not hopeful.

The LDS Enclaves also showed huge differences on gender. Short-term and long-term, 61% of women said they were not hopeful about the future of the United States. Meanwhile, men said they were hopeful about the nation’s short-term and long-term prospects.

What Is the “Why?”

These data raise as many questions as they answer. In the weeks ahead, the American Communities Project will visit different kinds of communities to better understand what’s driving these differences.

As we often note, survey data are good at laying out the size and scope of the challenges people feel in different communities, but they do not go very far in explaining why people hold the attitudes they do.

We’ll be exploring that question when we hit the road.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Economics

Effects of Federal Government Worker Layoffs Spread Nationwide

by Dante Chinni February 26, 2025

The steady rollout of federal job cuts driven the Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE) has brought an intense focus to Washington D.C., but, in reality, federal workers are scattered around the country. That means big cuts will have big implications far from the Beltway.

The American Communities Project’s deep dive into federal government employment data shows just how far the reach of federal government jobs extends. That data, from the U.S. Census, shows nearly all U.S. counties have at least some civilian federal government employment and hundreds of counties have large numbers of federal employees — 5% or more of total employment.

Viewed through the ACP’s prism, five of the 15 community types owe 3% or more of their total civilian employment to the federal government. That number is more than it seems. A sudden 1% or 2% loss of jobs can have big effects, especially on small communities.

And that’s not the entire story. The impacts of any layoffs could vary greatly depending on the different unemployment scenarios in the United States. In short, we may not know the full size and scope of the federal layoffs yet, but wide areas of the country are exposed, and not all layoffs are created equal.

Who Is a Federal Worker?

Before we can talk about the impacts of federal government layoffs, we must define the federal civilian workforce, which is not as easy as it sounds.

The Office of Personnel Management quotes a figure of about 2.4 million people. But that excludes the U.S. Postal Service, which adds another 600,000. And none of this includes federal contractors, some of whom work more like direct federal employees. Brookings Institution Fellow Paul Light estimates the true federal workforce number, including contractors and grantees is more than 10 million people — closer to 9 million without the military.

For this analysis, the ACP used data from the American Community Survey from the U.S. Census. Their latest figure, from 2023, shows about 4.2 million people self-identify as federal workers. Mapping that workforce by county shows the reach of federal employment across the country.

Look at that map and some things jump out. Note the darker blues around the Washington, D.C. area, including Maryland and Virginia. But look out west and you’ll see some of those same colors and, more broadly speaking, you see lighter shades of blue all over the map.

Across the ACP Types

When you sort those workers into the ACP 15 community types, you see more evidence of a broad-based civilian federal workforce. In 14 of the 15 types, 2% or more of the employed workers work for the federal government — all but in Rural Middle America. In five community types, the workforce is 3% or more.

It’s worth noting that the Big Cities, the most heavily Democratic-voting community type, are in the bottom half of the ACP types when it comes to federal government employees. Meanwhile, several communities with higher federal employment tend to vote Republican — Military Posts, Native American Lands, and LDS Enclaves.

One reason for federal workers in these communities is that those places tend to have many government offices. (Not all jobs in and around military bases go to the soldiers, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs is active around reservations.) The three community types also tend to be rural, which usually means a heavier reliance on government jobs, at the federal, state, and local levels.

Those percentages may seem small, but remember, most of the 15 community types in the ACP hold millions of people.

So that 8.2% in the Military Posts equals more than 360,000 people. That 3% in the Urban Suburbs equals 1.1 million people. Even Rural Middle America, with the lowest percentage of federal workers, has more than 200,000 people employed by the federal government, according to the Census data.

Of course, all job losses don’t hit the same in the American Communities Project types, because unemployment rates vary.

December Unemployment

Comparing the federal worker numbers to the latest county-level unemployment, from December 2024, shows some differences.

Using those data, the national figure for unemployment sat at roughly 3.8% in December, but the figures are higher in about half of the community types and notably higher in the Hispanic Centers and Native American Lands. Hispanic and Native American communities may be less equipped to handle a raft of government firings.

While the December unemployment rate is not historically high, the data suggest that sudden drops in government employment could have a real impact in particular communities.

For instance, the total number of unemployed people in Military Posts in December, about 161,000, is not even half of the total number of civilian federal workers in those places. So deep government workforce cuts in those communities could easily double their unemployment rates. You can imagine similar challenges in other community types.

For example, the Exurbs have about 377,000 civilian federal employees, according to the Census data. In December, those same counties had 585,000 unemployed. If one-third of those Exurban federal employees were let go, the unemployment rate in the Exurbs could go from 3.4% to 4.1% in just a few months. There might be very different realities — higher or lower rates — in specific Exurban communities, but that’s a big jump in a short time for this community type overall.

The point being, again, that sudden mass firings could create real hardship — not just in Washington, D.C., but across the country.

Much of this is theoretical, of course. DOGE seems to be quickly cutting government positions daily, but there is no way of knowing just how deep the ad-hoc government entity will ultimately slash employment. One thing that’s clear in the data: A wide swath of the nation is exposed in the cuts — in all kinds of communities.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Technology

Probing Americans’ Complicated Relationship with Technology and Privacy

by Ari Pinkus February 21, 2025

In the first few weeks of President Trump’s new term, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has moved to access data from the Treasury Department, the Internal Revenue Service, and the Social Security Administration, potentially unlocking the personal information of millions of Americans. The overall concern, including lawsuits filed by state governments and labor unions, was captured in the recent New York Times article “Struggle Over Americans’ Personal Data Plays Out Across the Government.”

Amid the alarm and legal battles, the American Communities Project sought to better understand Americans’ feelings and behaviors on technology and privacy generally and government and business specifically, based on questions about technology attitudes in the latest MRI-Simmons consumer survey of American households taken between September 2021 and August 2023, and then segmented into the ACP’s 15 community types in fall 2024.

The analysis reveals that Americans across the 15 community types have a deeply dependent if sometimes uncomfortable relationship with technology and the Internet. Also, by and large, Americans do not express trust in the federal government to protect their privacy. But across the board, they do not feel they can take action if their personal information appears online. To be in such sync on important issues seems rare and worth watching now. It’s hard to know if and how these numbers will move post DOGE. In many ways, the numbers should be viewed as a pre-DOGE baseline.

Tech Ubiquity

Nationally, 84% of Americans said they somewhat or completely agree that “when I need information, the first place I look is the Internet.” Just five points separated the types for this behavior, all in the average index range, according to MRI-Simmons. Low-income Native American Lands were slightly less at 81%, while the affluent Urban Suburbs and Exurbs reached 86%.

Meanwhile, 60% said they somewhat or completely agree that “I often wish I could take a break from technology.” Again, there was little variation among the types on this statement. The lower-income, less connected African American South came in at 57% while the middle-income, more wired LDS Enclaves in the Mountain West stood at 63%. The two rural communities are known for their strong religious affiliations and practices. The push-pull between routine behavior and strong attitudes is evident in Americans’ responses to these two statements.

Beliefs About the Federal Government and Business

On the key statement: “I trust the federal government to make the best decisions about how to protect my privacy,” just 27% of Americans somewhat or completely agreed. Percentages for trust were considered below the average index score in the largely homogeneous LDS Enclaves and Rural Middle America and above average in the more diverse African American South and Big Cities. Notably, this survey was taken a few years ago before the current controversy.

When it comes to their dealings with businesses, Americans seem more willing to trust. Overall, 59% said they somewhat or completed agree that “I'm OK with companies sharing my product preferences as long as my identity is kept private.” This varied just three points among the 15 types.

However, when personal information enters the online arena, there is a widespread sense of resignation among Americans. Nationally, 71% said they somewhat or completely agree with the statement: “Once a piece of personal information becomes available online, there is nothing I can do about it.” Just four points separated the 15 types, showing within the average range.

What's Next?

Now that Americans’ dependence on technology is colliding with the distrust of the federal government’s concern for protecting their privacy, how will individuals reckon with the belief that “there is nothing I can do about it”?

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

Media

How Americans Consume News and Bright Spots in the Local Landscape

by Ari Pinkus February 11, 2025

As the local news landscape continues to shrink, a large swath of Americans say they absorb community news through the ether and their daily chatter, from going about their day to scrolling on social media to connecting with family and friends. At the same time, a large part of the population says they avoid the news, according to the latest American Communities Project/Ipsos survey of some 5,000 Americans, conducted last summer.

As if to underscore these points, our survey found that 40% of Americans spent zero hours or almost no hours reading online news sites in a day, on average. Another 39% said they spent one hour a day on online news sites. Overall, 21% read such sites for more than one hour in an average day.

How Americans Are Absorbing News

Close to half of Americans believe they stay up to date with local news without seeking it out. Overall, 44% agreed with the statement: “I can be well-informed about local news and events even when I don’t actively follow the news.” The variation among types was limited, in the low to high 40s. A bit higher than average were LDS Enclaves at 51% and Rural Middle America at 50%. Social and religious ties are particularly strong in the Mountain West’s Mormon-dominated communities, while Rural Middle America is dotted with small-town main streets. Meanwhile, Native American Lands and Aging Farmlands were markedly higher at 73% and 75%, respectively. Both community types, while sparse, are known for close-knit connections among residents. However, it should be noted that the sampling in these two community types has to be conducted by phone because the population is too sparse for online panels of respondents.

Social media, too, now plays a major role in the news ecosystem. Indeed, 44% of Americans said: “I learn more about what’s happening in my community on social media than through the news.” Aging Farmlands stood at 59% on this statement. A few rural communities — Native American Lands, Evangelical Hubs, and Hispanic Centers — were above average in the low 50s. As we found in our rural travels, residents may lack broadband internet access, but cellphones are ubiquitous and social media platforms are inescapable there. Social media has become like a public utility or town square in many rural communities. At the other end of the spectrum were Big Cities and Exurbs at 38% and Graying America at 36%.

Relying on close connections for news is not as prevalent as logging in to social media. Just over a third of Americans, 35%, said: “I rely on friends and family to tell me when important things happen in the community.” The variation followed similar patterns. Majorities in the Aging Farmlands and Native American Lands agreed with the statement. Evangelical Hubs and Rural Middle America, too, were notably above average, at 43% and 44% respectively. All others were in the mid- to high 30s.

Why Americans Are Avoiding News

More than two in five Americans, 42%, said: “I avoid the news because it is depressing.” Practicing avoidance for this reason was remarkably consistent, ranging 10 percentage points or fewer, from a high of 49% in the Aging Farmlands to a low of 39% in the more diverse Military Posts.

About one in five Americans, 19%, said: “I avoid the news because it does not really impact my life.” This, too, ranged 10 points or fewer, from 25% in the Aging Farmlands to 15% in the African American South and Working Class Country, concentrated in the Appalachian region.

Different Realities and Bright Spots

The American Communities Project has long detailed Americans’ different realities depending on where they live, and this is true when viewing the news landscape. The decline of local news outlets has been associated with increased polarization, distrust in media, and misinformation, according to Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism and other academic research, points we documented in our 2023 and 2024 survey results. In particular, news deserts, i.e., counties without professional local news outlets, tend to be in rural ACP types with lower incomes and lower educational levels, as we also previously noted.

More recently, Northwestern’s State of Local News 2024 continued to document the shrinking local news landscape, this time with a somewhat hopeful note: “Since 2005, the nation has lost more than a third of all local newspapers and more than two are still vanishing every week. For the first time since we began keeping statistics, our 2024 report chronicled a net increase in both standalone and network digital news sites. These gains, however, have not been unable to compensate for the significant losses of disappearing newspapers,” according to the report's release.

The 2024 report singled out and detailed these bright spots, places where local news outlets have started in the past five years. As seen below, the 258 outlets dot the country's vast landscape.

An ACP analysis showed that these startup outlets are concentrated in urban-oriented places with higher incomes and educational levels, including Big Cities, Urban Suburbs, College Towns, and Exurbs. Middle Suburbs, also containing larger populations and located near urban centers, were notably lower. Among rural places, Graying America, full of retired, senior Americans, stood out at 8%. The ACP recently described the demographic and cultural changes happening in Graying America communities, which may account for this higher percentage of bright spots.

With the fragmentation of media, Americans' information habits, the reimagining of journalism amid news deserts, and the heightened interest in supporting democracy, the opportunity exists to seed and nurture more bright spots in the news landscape.

Vol. 3 2020-2021

Deaths of Despair Across America

The American Communities Project is undertaking a 30-month study of Deaths of Despair in its 15 community types.

Learn More

What Is a College Town?

“Tier 1” Research Schools

Going Forward

The Value of Higher Learning Institutions

On the Fragmentation in American Society

Deaths of Despair Across America

Manufacturing in the ACP

Automation and Costs

Challenges Ahead

Unemployment Climbs in August With Surprising Communities Leading the Way

The Struggles Farming Counties Are Facing Now

Deaths of Despair Across America

Tesla Dealers in the ACP

Consumerism in the ACP

On Americans’ Hopes, Fears, Perceptions, and Lived Experiences

Comedy Scenes in a Fragmented America

Deaths of Despair Across America

Broadly Seen as a Threat

More Government Attention Wanted

Environmental Worries Are Not an Overreaction

Majority Agree on Importance of Preserving Nature

Divide on Banning Products that Pollute

Valuing the Environment

How a Native American Land Community Is Dealing with Drought and Poisoned Creeks

ACP Begins Work With NASA, University of Maryland

Deaths of Despair Across America

Mutual Funds

Stocks

Retirement Plans: 401(k) and 403(b)

The Point

Unemployment Climbs in August With Surprising Communities Leading the Way

The Struggles Farming Counties Are Facing Now

Deaths of Despair Across America

Individual Beliefs and Practices

Little Embrace of Organized Religion

Religion in Society

Religious Stereotypes vs. Reality in Urban, Suburban, and Rural America

How Vaccine Trends Compare Across Community Types

Deaths of Despair Across America

Where Women Are Less Hopeful

Where Men Are Less Hopeful

The Sharpest Divides

What Is the “Why?”

On Americans’ Hopes, Fears, Perceptions, and Lived Experiences

Comedy Scenes in a Fragmented America

Deaths of Despair Across America

Who Is a Federal Worker?

Across the ACP Types

December Unemployment

Unemployment Climbs in August With Surprising Communities Leading the Way

The Struggles Farming Counties Are Facing Now

Deaths of Despair Across America

Tech Ubiquity

Beliefs About the Federal Government and Business

What's Next?

Across American Communities, Very Different Broadband Realities Abound

Breaking Barriers to Connectivity in a Michigan College Town

Deaths of Despair Across America

How Americans Are Absorbing News

Why Americans Are Avoiding News

Different Realities and Bright Spots

Where the Local Journalists Are in America

Where Young Voters Get Their News First — and What They Do Next

Deaths of Despair Across America