Communities to Watch in U.S. Senate Races This Fall
Midterm elections can be complicated. The top races in different states can vary — in some it’s the U.S. House, in others the U.S. Senate or Governor. That can make the individual races feel very different.
Still, a few basic rules usually apply. Midterms are generally a referendum on the president and his party, and a few major issues tend to dominate voters’ thinking across the country. Candidate quality matters, but so does the demographic and geographic terrain on which campaigns are fought. That is where the American Communities Project typology can be especially valuable, particularly at the state level.
The biggest question going into the 2026 election season is who will control the U.S. Senate next January. The ACP’s typology offers insights into the voter landscapes in the six or seven states that will likely determine that answer.
What do we know about the issues impacting communities that make up those states? What do they think about the man currently in the White House? The answers to those questions are not completely knowable, especially in June, but there are clues in the data.
The Larger Landscape
As of June 2026, U.S. Senate control in 2027 looks like it will hinge on the races in seven states that basically can be put into three categories:
- States Democratic Candidates Should Win: Michigan and North Carolina;
- True Toss-up States: Maine and Ohio; and
- Democratic Reach States: Alaska, Iowa, and Texas.
That list comes from looking at the race ratings from the Cook Political Report and the ACP’s own analysis. If U.S. Senate control is genuinely in play, these are the states to watch.
The discussion here is framed through the possibility of Democratic control because history suggests Democrats are likely to gain seats in a midterm election with a Republican in the White House.
Should the Democrats hold Michigan and win North Carolina, the party would need to win three of the other five races to capture the U.S. Senate. That won’t be easy. The states in those last two categories are generally not great turf for Democratic candidates, but President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings spurred in part by lingering inflation concerns and the ongoing war in Iran may change the equation this year.
For Democrats to have any chance in November they are going to need a strong turnout and big margins in the ACP types that consistently vote Democratic: Big Cities, College Towns, and Urban Suburbs. But if they are going to pull surprises in these states, a few community types are going to be crucial to watch. Here is a list of those types, the populations they hold in these seven key states, and why the numbers in them could move.
The African American South
There is one U.S. Senate battleground where the African American South could be key, North Carolina, where those counties hold 8% of the state’s voting-age population.
Trump did not win the vote from the African American South in 2024, but he improved his margins. He lost these communities by 5 percentage points. In the 2020 presidential election, he lost them by 10 points. It was seen as a big win for the president and a potential opening for Republicans with African American voters, who make up large parts of this type’s population.
But an ACP analysis of G. Elliott Morris’s data showed Trump’s approval in these communities was in the mid- to high-30s in May. One way to read those numbers is a reversion to the norm — and then some. Trump’s 47% of the vote in 2024 was a 20-year high for a Republican. The slide of support in these communities may be less about a specific policy failure than it is a failure to capitalize on what looked like a special opportunity for the GOP in 2024. It’s not clear how real that opportunity ever was, and it looks like Trump will be a drag in the African American South this fall.
Exurbs
Exurbs, the well-educated, wealthy, politically conservative communities that sit on the edge of many metro areas, are present in all seven battleground states and could play a big role in the outcome of all the races. But keep an eye on Ohio especially, where big counties like Delaware, north of Columbus, have slowly been shifting Democratic over time. In fact, Trump won Delaware County by less in 2024 than he did in 2020.
The ACP’s analysis of Trump’s approval showed these traditionally Republican counties shifting away from Trump since 2024. Trump won them with about 56% of the vote in 2024, but the ACP’s analysis showed Exurban approval numbers in the low-40s this past May.
These counties are not full of the blue-collar voters that make up the president’s base; rather, they hold more old-school chamber of commerce GOP types who believed Trump was good for the economy. Their higher incomes insulate them from the worst of any inflation impacts, but when voters back a candidate for primarily one reason and he doesn’t deliver, they can turn away. In a close U.S. Senate race, that can have a big impact.
Graying America
Graying America counties, which are scattered around the country and reliably Republican, have been strongly supportive of President Trump. He has won them by at least 17 percentage points in his three presidential campaigns, and he won them by 22 points in 2024. While Graying America communities are found in all seven U.S. Senate battlegrounds, they hold a massive chunk of Maine’s population.
Graying America gave Trump 60% of its vote in 2024, but the ACP approval analysis showed their approval for Trump had fallen under 50% by May 2026. It’s hard not to see inflation and healthcare inflation in particular as a big river of the discontent in these places. There are many people living on fixed incomes, many of whom visit the doctor often.
Older voters are often more socially conservative, and in the fall, these places may look to candidates who are moderate enough to win them over while also promising to fix the nation’s economic and healthcare cost problems.
Hispanic Centers
The Republican swing in the Hispanic vote was arguably the biggest story in the 2024 presidential results, and that was true for the Hispanic Centers in the ACP as well. Trump won the Hispanic Centers by 10 percentage points in 2024, after losing them by 2 points in 2020. The flips were especially noticeable in Texas, where Trump flipped eight Hispanic Center counties in 2024 and shifted margins in others.
Trump won 54% of the vote in the Hispanic Centers in 2024, but the ACP analysis in May showed his job approval at 40% or lower — an especially steep drop. One might think the Trump administration’s hardline immigration enforcement is behind that dip — and that may be some of it — but these communities also tend to have lower household incomes. They are the kind of places where increasing inflation can hit people hard.
In Texas these counties hold 15% of the adult population. Even if you account for lower turnout in these counties, which is likely, that is a lot of potential voters. And if the U.S. Senate race in Texas ends up being as close as some polls suggest, that is more than enough to be a decisive factor in the state.
Middle Suburbs
Many believe President Trump’s blue-collar support is rural, and much of it is, but the Middle Suburbs are communities where that base is more urban and populous. Largely based around the Great Lakes, they are a crucial part of winning close races in the Industrial Midwest. And they are likely to matter a lot in the U.S. Senate races in Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio.
These counties used to be fairly close, but since Trump, they have become more solidly Republican, at least in presidential years. Trump won them by 13 percentage points in 2024, capturing 56% of the vote. But the ACP’s analysis of Trump’s job approval found that his support had eroded to the low- to mid-40s in May.
A few reasons may account for that drop, along with increasing inflation. As we have noted on this site a few times, manufacturing jobs, which are a huge part of these communities, have not yet returned as promised. Watch the areas around metro Detroit and Cleveland as well as the eastern side of Iowa. If those races are close, Republicans will want big turnout and margins from these counties if they are going to hold on to those seats.
Military Posts
Military Posts have long been solidly Republican, largely due to geographic and cultural reasons. Many are rural and revolve around military installations, which tend to attract more socially conservative people. But the community type’s vote has been largely unaffected by President Trump. Since 2008, the Republican share of the vote in these communities has been remarkably stable — between 54% and 56%. In Alaska, Military Posts hold a massive 61% of the 18-and-over population.
The ACP’s analysis of Trump’s approval showed that fewer than 45% in these communities approve of the president’s job performance. These communities are some of the most difficult to understand. Members of the military generally dislike being quoted on the record. That said, these are not wealthy communities, so inflation hits harder here. In addition, the Trump administration’s use of the military, particularly in Iran, has raised eyebrows among those who support the troops. Some have cited an increase in those seeking “conscientious objector” status.
Is a small shift in the military vote enough to make a difference in the U.S. Senate race in Alaska? Considering the size of the adult population in Alaska’s Military Posts and what polls are suggesting will be a close race, yes. Remember it is June. The military situation in the Middle East could look much different by the fall, or not. But the size of this vote in Alaska makes Military Posts worth watching.