Four Counties to Watch in Michigan’s Democratic Primary
EAST LANSING, MICH. – In less than two weeks, Democrats in Michigan will hold a primary election to determine their nominee for the U.S. Senate. And, depending on who you listen to, that vote will be crucial to the battle for control of the upper chamber of the U.S. Congress, or not really that important.
The two possibilities are U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, who represents a district north and west of Detroit, and Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official from Wayne County. And many see the race as a clash between the party’s establishment wing (Stevens) and its progressive base (El-Sayed).
Supporters of both have arguments for why their candidate must win for the Democrats to hold the seat currently occupied by U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, who is stepping down after two terms. Backers of Stevens say that her more centrist positions are crucial to winning moderate voters in November. Those who back El-Sayed say their candidate has the energy and can bring out young voters and more liberal voters.
Michigan is a complicated state, so to get a sense of what the race looks like in different areas and with different kinds of voters, the American Communities Project met with party officials in four distinct counties last week:
- Ingham, the College Town home of Michigan State University and the state government;
- Kent, an Urban Suburb on the state’s west side;
- Macomb, the blue-collar Middle Suburb north of Detroit; and
- Wayne, the densely populated Big City that holds Detroit.
The overall feelings from most of the officials reveal that there may be less of a difference between the two candidates than meets the eye, at least in terms of performance in the general election in November. Each candidate offers some trade-offs, but officials here believe the disparities are likely small.
And while the race is being framed as a battle for the soul and future of the Democratic Party, at least in Michigan, that view may miss the larger subtleties around it. In the gubernatorial primary, the same Democratic voters are likely to nominate Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is considered more of an establishment candidate. And as the ACP noted recently, the Democratic Primary electorate in various kinds of communities can look very different and be driven by very different kinds of issues.
Ingham County, the College Town
There is little doubt how Ingham County will vote in the fall. It has not voted for a Republican Senate candidate since the Carter administration, but Democrats generally want big turnout and margins from Ingham to offset GOP margins elsewhere. Right now, this county, which is full of younger and more liberal voters, looks to be solidly El-Sayed territory. The signs for his campaign were popping up in the area even back in the spring. Does he need to be the Democratic nominee for those voters to show up in November?
In many ways Ingham is a prototypical college town: a higher-than-average rate for bachelor’s degrees (41%), but a lower-than-expected median household income ($66,500). And East Lansing offers the quintessential college town experience, with a university that serves 50,000 students on one side of the street and a bunch of restaurants, cafes, and bars on the other.
Brian P. Jackson, chairman of the county Democratic Party, has lived in the area for decades and seen a lot of midterm elections. This one feels different, particularly on the left, according to Jackson.
“You know, in 2018 it was all just rage at Trump,” he said. “Now, a percentage of the electorate, we’ll see if it’s a majority, are not going to settle for just ‘not Trump.’ They’re looking more for things like healthcare for all.”
There are a lot of divisions even within the party now, he said, much of these driven by social media and content aimed at producing outrage. “I’m trying to look at how we as a party can come together after this, you know, after the primary. There are voters that really love a particular candidate, and we have to come together. If we don’t, we will lose.”
He said there are bound to be hard feelings after the primary that will need to be smoothed over. El-Sayed has the support of younger voters, but historically, they are not the most reliable voters in midterm elections. If El-Sayed loses on August 4th, getting them to the polls in November could be even harder.
Kent County, the Urban Suburb
Over the past several elections, the vote coming out of Kent has shifted as the population has grown and diversified and as the GOP has changed under Trump. Kent, the birthplace of former President Gerald Ford, was once solidly Republican, but since 2016, it has voted Democratic in six of eight statewide elections. That sounds like a moderate, light-blue electorate. Perhaps it is in the general election, but Democrats in Kent expect El-Sayed will win their county in the August primary.
Kent is home to Grand Rapids and the city’s inner suburbs. It has all the hallmarks of an Urban Suburb with a higher-than-average median household income ($82,600) and a lot of racial and ethnic diversity (a population that is 69% non-Hispanic white) for the west side of the state. There is an urban core, but it quickly gives way to low-slung buildings, nice homes, and upscale retailers.
In particular, the Democratic vote in Kent County is more liberal than the state as a whole, said Chris Herweyer, the party secretary in Kent. He noted that El-Sayed ran for governor in Michigan in 2018 and almost beat eventual governor Gretchen Whitmer in the county, receiving 41% to Whitmer’s 44%. “Kent County was one of Bernie’s best counties as well. He won Kent County by like 25 points in that presidential primary,” Herweyer said, and that leftward lean seems to have held here.
“You look at social media, and I don’t know what kind of indicator that is, but oh my gosh, every single post that I see about the Senate race, everybody is an Abdul supporter, minus a single one-off. It’s crazy that it’s that far leaning,” said Kim Gates, the Democratic Party county chairwoman.
But what does that mean in November, when the electorate expands, especially in a more moderate place like Kent? Herweyer sees a push and pull among different voter groups in the county that would lead to a fairly similar result. “Gun to my head, I think Haley would do slightly better in a general election than Abdul,” Herweyer said. “I think like less than half a percent.”
Macomb County, the Middle Suburb
Of all the counties we visited, Macomb may be the hardest to read. It voted for Republican Donald Trump in the presidential elections of 2016, 2020, and 2024. It voted for Democrat Gretchen Whitmer in the gubernatorial races of 2018 and 2022. And it split its Senate votes, going to the Democrat in 2018 and the Republican in 2020 and 2024. In 2024, the Republican Senate candidate was Mike Rogers. The GOP is set to nominate Rogers again, which should mean that the county goes Republican again in the fall.
Macomb is a blue-collar community on the edge of Detroit with lower-than-average bachelor’s degrees (28%) and a population less racially and ethnically diverse than the state at a whole (72% non-Hispanic white), even though Detroit is next door. In recent years, it has diversified with a growing Arab population, which has led to some tensions. On reporting trips to Macomb, some voters have expressed concerns about “Sharia law” coming to the county. (About 2% of county residents are Muslim, according to a database of religious adherence.) The county has developed a rightward tilt with Trump on the political scene.
But, again, margins matter. If Democrats can keep it close here, that could help them statewide. Democratic Party County Chairwoman Alysa Diebolt said she sees a lot more lawn signs for El-Sayed in Macomb (something that’s true in most places in Michigan), but she also sees a very close race in the county.
“I’ve seen both on social media and stuff from people on my actual news feed, but also on the ‘For You’ on Twitter of like strangers. I just don’t know. They both have a good percentage. I don’t know who has larger,” she said.
And Diebolt questions which candidate would really be “better” for November. Stevens has a moderate appeal and talks a lot about manufacturing that should help in November, especially in a place like Macomb, Diebolt says. But El-Sayed can draw younger voters and that could make a difference, if not in Macomb then elsewhere in the state.
“El-Sayed brings a lot more young people. I worry he’s not on the ballot, they won’t vote at all,” she said. “They will just skip the race. They just won’t show up at all. And I think like the blue wave depends on these other like groups showing up for the first time.”
Wayne County, the Big City
There is no doubt which way this county will vote in November. How Democratic is the vote in Wayne County? So Democratic that it voted for Walter Mondale in 1984, and was one of only four counties in the state to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee that year.
The county is big and densely populated and complicated as in the case for most Big Cities. It is far more diverse than the state racially and ethnically (48% non-Hispanic white) with a high poverty rate (22%). But the divides and differences within Wayne are immense. From Detroit to Dearborn to Livonia, the median household incomes range from $40,000 to $65,000 to $98,000.
For the August Democratic primary, those divisions will be on display. Detroit is 75% Black, and survey data show Black voters are heavily backing Stevens partly because of her association with former President Barack Obama. A recent poll showed Stevens was winning African American voters by 46 percentage points. But Wayne also contains Dearborn with its large Arab population, and El-Sayed is a Sunni Muslim whose father was born in Egypt.
What does that mean for the August contest? It may depend on turnout in Detroit versus the rest of the county.
Sami Khaldi, president of the Dearborn Democratic Club (Wayne County does not have an official party headquarters) said there will be hard feelings among El-Sayed supporters if Stevens wins, especially in Dearborn. But the key will be how the losing candidate responds.
“We will do our best to make sure, you know, bring everybody together,” Khaldi said. “But what’s going to help us bring this together is the candidates. Whoever wins. We support them, and the one who loses needs to come and support the other one.”
Bigger Meaning
For the most part, the message from the various Democratic voices was clear. El-Sayed seems to have the energy and possibility of bringing out new voters. Stevens’s support is quieter and harder to gauge, but her broader appeal with moderates in the traditional electorate feels real. How much difference will the candidate make in November? That is much harder to know.
If El-Sayed wins, does it say something about the direction of the Democratic Party in Michigan or nationally? Maybe. Or maybe, as some have argued here, the “establishment” candidate is not an especially strong campaigner. If Stevens wins, does that mean “Democratic Socialism” has been dealt a serious blow? Perhaps, or maybe Michigan is just not the right place for it to flower now. It’s hard to say the Michigan Democratic Primary is about any concrete set of issues or a shift in the electorate. Again, Jocelyn Benson, the establishment choice, is all but certain to win the Democratic nomination for governor.
For all the talk about these candidates and the national attention they are getting now, the larger story of the 2026 midterm elections still centers on an unpopular president and voters in a surly mood. Midterms are usually more about the bigger political landscape than individual candidates.
To be clear, the big fight over the direction of the party (really both parties) is still coming, and we’ll see more of it in 2028. The vote on August 4th in Michigan, whoever wins, is probably not the forecasting tool some believe it to be.