New Analysis Shows Trump’s Approval Sliding in His Stronghold Communities

President Trump has a tough 2026. The war the United States started in Iran drags on, and inflation is increasing. Consumer confidence is low. Most polls show Trump’s job approval numbers in the high 30s, and he has net negative ratings on almost all major issues — from the economy to immigration.

The American Communities Project sees a more complicated picture in the survey data, however. The president still has some areas of support in the ACP’s 15 community types, but not many, according to data from G. Elliott Morris’s Strength In Numbers and analyzed by the ACP. Perhaps more telling, support looks weak for Trump in places that are likely to matter a lot in November — his metro-area strongholds that tend to hold a lot of votes, the Middle Suburbs and Exurbs.

Of course, President Trump is not on the ballot this fall, but many Republican politicians are, and if the 2026 midterms end up being a referendum on the sitting president, per usual, the approval numbers show that many areas could be challenging for the GOP in November.

Things Have Changed Since 2024

The survey data here are built from G. Elliott Morris’s work on Substack. Morris uses a statistical model that measures how different demographic groups feel about Trump’s presidency, then maps those data onto county populations. The ACP took those county measures and used different weights to create weighted median measures for each of the ACP’s 15 community types.

The result is a set of data that shows wide differences in Trump’s approval ratings, but with numbers that look sharply lower than his 2024 election support.

There are only three community types where Trump’s job approval is 50% among adults: Evangelical Hubs, Aging Farmlands, and Working Class Country.  In just five community types does he hit the 50% mark among registered voters: the three aforementioned types along with Rural Middle America and Native American Lands.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are seven community types where Trump is at an approval rating of 40% or lower among adults, and five community types where he is at 40% or below among registered voters.

If you look at the right side of the chart that shows Trump’s vote percentage in each of the types in 2024, you can see how much lower his support is across the board, as of mid-May.

But a few types stand out in the data.

Places to Watch

The Exurbs and Middle Suburbs are both under 50% approval for Trump when looking at adults and registered voters. That may prove to be a problem for the GOP, especially in states that contain major metro-areas and have big gubernatorial and senate races this fall — think Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio.

In statewide races, urban areas bring a lot of votes. While the Republicans often struggle in big urban areas, Trump has performed well in the past in the wealthy, educated Exurbs and the blue-collar Middle Suburbs.

Different issues drive voters in each of these places. Exurban voters have traditionally leaned Republican but may not like the economic turbulence Trump has brought with him. The Middle Suburbs rely heavily on manufacturing jobs, which have not returned as promised. Regardless of the reasons, if voters in these places are feeling disheartened about Trump, that could drive up the urban edge for Democrats there.

Also noteworthy on the chart, the relatively low approval numbers in the Hispanic Centers and Military Posts. Trump won both those community types comfortably in 2024, with 54% and 55% of the vote respectively, but they now show Trump’s approval numbers in the 40s and 30s. (The drop in the Hispanic Centers among adults is particularly precipitous compared to 2024.)

Understanding what’s behind the declines is hard without further survey work or reporting trips. But some overall trends are emerging. Trump’s decline in support among Hispanics has been a finding in many polls, and the drop in the Military Posts may be tied to the struggle of ending the conflict in Iran and/or the lack of a clear strategy.

Of course, the broader dour mood about the economy is probably driving down the president’s numbers everywhere.

Caveats and Time

There are some caveats about the chart above.

The approval data is based on a weighted median for each type, while the 2024 election results are actual vote figures. The weighted medians remove the bumpiness in the numbers and focus on the middle points in each type, while the election results are just a tally of all votes in each type. Massive margins of victory in some places can skew the tallies.

Still, the differences in these types compared to the 2024 results are telling. Trump’s massive margins in the rural communities like Evangelical Hubs and Aging Farmlands were widespread, not due to running up the margins in a few places.

The other broader caveat: There is a big difference between a choice of two options (like the 2024 election) and how people feel about the president’s job performance. People who voted for Trump and have issues with his second term still might say they would vote for him again depending on who the alternative is. That’s certainly something we heard on a recent reporting trip to Iowa.

But the approval numbers here are, in some ways, a measure of engagement. Many of the community types where Trump won big support in 2024, just aren’t enthused by his performance in the White House. People in some of the Trump-voting types appear to be downright disappointed. And unenthused, disappointed voters often are not eager to vote. That can have large-scale consequences.

It’s true that the 2026 midterms are still months away, but in political terms, that’s not a lot of time to push these numbers in the opposite direction. When a president is sitting near 40% job approval, that’s never a good thing for the White House. Overall, these data suggest that the nation’s continuing challenges, some of which are being caused by Trump, have deeply eaten into his geographic base of support.