In the Midterm Homestretch, Breaking Down the Citizen Voting-Age Population

With the consequential midterm elections two months away, the American Communities Project is taking a closer look at today’s citizen voting-age population in the 15 community types, based on the most recent five-year American Community Survey (ACS) from 2024.

The U.S. map points to an urban-rural chasm in raw numbers of voting-age citizens, but the 2026 electoral battleground covers narrower terrain. Urban-oriented communities — Big Cities, College Towns, Exurbs, Middle Suburbs, and Urban Suburbs — account for about 67% of the overall citizen voting-age population. Exurbs, with about 10% of this population, and Middle Suburbs, with about 4%, are likely to be the largest contested areas in the bunch, but they do trend Republican.

Rural-oriented communities account for about 33% of the citizen voting-age population and encompass 10 community types: the African American South, Aging Farmlands, Evangelical Hubs, Graying America, Hispanic Centers, LDS Enclaves, Military Posts, Native American Lands, Rural Middle America, and Working Class Country. Of these, Hispanic Centers are widely considered the most competitive ground, making up 4.7% of the citizen voting-age population. However, polls show Hispanics have moved away from President Trump in large numbers. The spotlight will also fall on Military Posts, particularly in the competitive states of Alaska, North Carolina, and Georgia, because of the war with Iran. These communities account for about 3% of the citizen voting-age population.

Competitive Races in 2026

This year, dozens of competitive Congressional races are progressing around the country, according to the Cook Political Report’s current analysis. The nonpartisan handicapping group is tracking 46 hotly contested seats — 9 U.S. Senate seats collectively considered toss-ups, lean Democrat, or lean Republican and 37 U.S. House seats labeled toss-ups, lean Democrat, or lean Republican. Overall, the number of competitive races is fewer than in previous election cycles, partly because of redistricting and self-sorting. Recently, we focused on the communities to watch in seven battleground Senate races.

Voter Turnout and Enthusiasm

Historically, voter turnout in midterm elections has been lower than in presidential elections. Presidential years have seen turnout in the mid- to upper-50 percent range, while midterm rates have been in the 30s to low 40s. Notably, the past decade has seen higher rates for midterm elections, according to Pew Research Center’s analysis.

• In 2010, when the Tea Party Republicans swept into power in Congress, the national voter turnout was 37%.
• In 2014, turnout dipped to 34.4%.
• In 2018, midway through President Donald Trump’s first term, turnout swelled to 48.1%.
• In 2022, midway through President Joe Biden’s term, it was 45.1%.

This midterm campaign, polls are capturing a great deal of enthusiasm for voting. In an Ipsos survey in the spring, 59% of Americans said they are absolutely certain to vote. Additionally, 13% said they probably will vote. Among registered voters, 42% said the 2026 midterm election is much more important than past midterms, while 16% said this midterm is more important than previous ones. This election is poised to be more about turning out energized voters than persuading the unengaged.

Voting-Age Cohorts Through the Community Types

In looking at the 2024 data of the ACS’s four voting-age cohorts —18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+ — through the American Communities Project’s filter, a few points stand out:

The youngest electorates, voters under age 45, are in the Mormon-dominated LDS Enclaves concentrated in Utah, Hispanic Centers in Florida and the Southwest, and College Towns nationwide. In 2024, the percentages in these three community types were 55%, 51%, and 50%, respectively. In the November election, eyes will be on the Hispanic Centers. Pew Research Center reported on youth turnout in the past midterms thus: “In 2022, 36% of voters were under 50, compared with 40% of voters in 2018.”

In the battleground Exurban communities, the American Community Survey showed that the voting-age citizens were mostly in the professional, family-rearing, and retirement stages, with 81% age 30 and over.

The oldest electorates are in Graying America, 396 counties scattered around the country, and the 268 Aging Farmlands centered in the Central and Great Plains. In Graying America, 34% of the electorate were 65 and over, while in the Aging Farmlands, 31% were 65-plus.

These statistics line up with known demographic drivers: Utah’s high birth rates, Latino population growth skewing younger, student populations in college towns, and rural population loss leaving behind older residents.

Meanwhile, Big Cities and Urban Suburbs pull in opposite age directions despite their urban orientation. Big Cities have a notably young electorate. In 2024, 49% were under age 45, while Urban Suburbs skewed older with 44% under 45. These numbers suggest cities and their suburbs are becoming distinct electorates, not a single metropolitan bloc.

Rural types cluster together and skew older. In Rural Middle America, Working Class Country, Middle Suburbs, and Evangelical Hubs, about 40% to 42% were under 45. These are the community types where the 45-to-64 cohort dominates most clearly — a generation that will be aging into the 65-and-over group in the next two census cycles.

Older citizens tend to be more reliable voters than younger ones, but it bears watching who will turn out. Americans across geographies and generations are energized by overall affordability challenges as well as immigration and corruption concerns, according to surveys, including ours with Ipsos in 2025.