Why President Trump’s Approval Has Declined

As President Trump’s second term passed the one-year mark, a series of polls showed declines in his support — declines that were especially steep among some voter groups. A New York Times poll in particular showed Trump had lost all the gains he made with non-white voters, younger voters, and midterm voters.

While some were surprised by the size of the turnaround, especially among some voters, viewed through the lens of the American Communities Project, the drops aren’t surprising and probably could have been predicted in January 2025.

Because when one looks closer at the 2024 results through the eyes of the ACP’s 15 community types, it’s hard to ignore how much the vote was likely influenced by the impact of inflation and a surly electorate that wasn’t going to be soothed easily.

A Different Election

There haven’t been a lot of “normal” presidential elections in the last few cycles. Trump has changed politics in a lot of ways. Add in a pandemic, protests, and massive voter turnout, and you have a prescription for elections that feel unique.

The 2024 election looked especially different in the ACP.  Trump won what turned out to be a close race by about 2.3 million votes and 1.5 percentage points. But the Republican Party improved on its margins (from 2020) in every one of the 15 community types the ACP studies — even places that vote reliably Democratic.

How different is that? Look at the changes from 2016 to 2020 in the chart above. In 2020, Joe Biden won the White House pretty comfortably, by about 7 million votes and 4.5 percentage points — and still six of the 15 community types saw an improvement in their margins for Trump, the Republican.

That’s because, as we often note, the 15 community types in the ACP are very different places — demographically, geographically, economically, and culturally. Seeing movement in one direction in all of them is not very common.

When you see a shift like that in one election, it is likely because there is a special candidate — a person who unites the country and brings voters to his or her unique brand or personality — or special circumstance or issue that is so dominant it overrides the differences.

There are a lot of reason to believe the latter was the driving force in 2024.

Consider Inflation

You can like President Trump or you can dislike him, but there is little doubt he is a divisive figure politically. He’s not the kind of politician who wins massive support across the board. In Gallup’s data, he has never broken 50% approval in either term.

And if you’re looking for an issue that united the country in 2024 (and 2023 and 2025 for that matter), it was inflation. The big surveys the ACP conducted in those years found that inflation was the No. 1 issue at the local and national levels in all 15 types.

Some political analysts talk about immigration as a decisive factor, but it was a distant second as the most important issue at the national level (and it was even lower in many communities). The issue of immigration barely registered locally.

And in 2025, the issue gap was the same: inflation, then everything else, nationally and locally.

In other words, the many different communities in the ACP were most concerned about inflation in 2023 and 2024. Candidate Donald Trump understood those concerns and talked a lot about them in 2024. He promised prices would come down when he was elected, which is a very difficult goal to accomplish.

In the end, the concerns among voters didn’t go away. Overall, prices did not go down. Inflation was still the top issue everywhere in the 2025 survey. And Trump shifted to talking down the idea of “affordability” (which essentially is inflation) as a “hoax.” That’s a tough line to sell when people don’t like how much they are spending at the supermarket or looking at their credit card statements every month.

Lessons In The Data?

When you look at the data that way, it’s hardly shocking Trump’s numbers have fallen. In fact, the drops look almost inevitable.

Candidates often the get the benefit of the doubt when they campaign. They aren’t making policy or the hard decisions of governing. They are making promises. And big promises can bring big belief — the kind of belief that leads every community type in the ACP to shift toward the challenger who is going to “make things better.” But if things don’t get better? Or they don’t get better as dramatically as people hope? Voters can shift — and fast.

Trump handling of the economy used to be his biggest strength in polling. Not anymore. Add in mixed feelings about how the administration is handling immigration and you get big drops in support.

There is a tendency to give elections and exit polls added weight in understanding the electorate. After all, it’s not just a poll, it’s real votes. (Women moved this much. Younger voters moved that much. Must be a trend.) But that’s often mistaken.

It’s often said that polls are a “snapshot in time.” That is true for election results as well. Elections are functions of time and place and candidates. The U.S. electorate is a deeply complicated animal. Sudden “dramatic shifts” among voters usually don’t mean much unless you see them repeatedly over time.