What the Texas Primary Results Tell Us

For more than a decade, Texas has been one of the biggest swing-state mirages in partisan politics — a place Democrats think they might have a chance to win “in a few years” only to see that idea disappear into the Republican column in election after election.

Analysts again believe this year could be different for the Lone Star State. The difference? The Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate primaries suggest more substance behind that view in 2026.

The data from the Democratic primary suggest the party has chosen a candidate, state Rep. James Talarico, who resonates in different kinds of places around the state. Meanwhile, the numbers behind the Republican primary results show the candidates facing off in the May runoff, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, are appealing to different sides of critical GOP fault lines.

To be clear, Texas does not head into the spring as any kind of toss-up. Democrats need a lot of factors to align for them in November to have a real shot at victory. But there are reasons to believe there could be a real fight in the state this fall.

Talarico’s Urban/Rural Wins

For years now, Democrats have faced a problem in winning rural places. They have become the party of urban voters as well as those with college degrees. But outside of urban areas, things get rough for them especially in places where the population is predominantly white.

The 2026 Democratic primary results show the party has found a candidate who seems to appeal to urban and rural voters — or at least urban and rural Democrats.

On March 3, James Talarico won the ACP types that are foundational for any Democrat — Big Cities (by 5 points), Urban Suburbs (by 12 points), and College Towns (by 14 points), on his way to winning fairly comfortably by more than 5 percentage points. But he also won the vote from the rural Aging Farmlands, Rural Middle America, and Graying America communities, as well as Hispanic Centers, a crucial set of places in Texas, and he won all those types by double-digit margins.

Those wins weren’t just the result of a massive overwhelming victory that leaked over into unexpected places. Talarico did that in a race where the vote was fairly evenly divided between himself and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. That’s an impressive win that walks both sides of the urban/rural divide.

Meanwhile, Crockett won big in the state’s African American South counties, Evangelical Hubs, Exurbs, Military Posts, and Working Class Country counties — places that are more rural, but that also tend to have larger African American populations than usual in Texas.

A Republican Runoff Looms

On the Republican side, the vote was considerably tighter, with incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn winning by fewer than 2 points. And since Cornyn didn’t break the 50% threshold, there will be a runoff in May.

But look at the Republican Primary vote for the U.S. Senate and you can see the divides that define GOP — the urban, more establishment-leaning party and the MAGA, Christian conservative side.

Cornyn won the vote from Texas’s Big City counties by about 8 points and the College Towns by about 7 points. Those counties are home to more people with bachelor’s degrees and higher incomes, particularly among Republicans.

Cornyn also won the state’s Military Post counties by more than 10 points, a sign that the GOP’s national-security wing in the state appears to be behind him.

Paxton’s biggest win, meanwhile, came from the state’s more socially conservative types, including the Evangelical Hubs, which he won by more than 7 points, and Working Class Country, which he carried by more than 5 points.

Meanwhile, Paxton carried the state’s suburban areas, the Urban Suburbs and Exurbs, more narrowly. In Texas, the Republicans in those places, around Austin, Dallas, and Houston, tend to lean more conservative.

It’s worth noting that the candidates split the vote in the Hispanic Centers in the state, which may reflect a deeper split among Republican in those places, mostly along the border and the western side of the state.

Someone will win the May 26 Republican runoff, and someone will lose, but hard feelings on either side could cause trouble for the GOP in November if disaffected or angry voters sit out Election Day.

A Long Way To Go

But talking about a November race in March may be a fool’s gambit, considering how volatile politics have been in recent years, particularly during this second Trump administration.

The electoral landscape could look very different in the fall. Inflation has persisted. Gas prices may rise in the wake of the U.S. bombings in Iran. And Iran itself could become a big issue if it becomes unstable or if American casualties grow.

The primary results indicate that Texas will remain tough sledding for Democrats.

It’s true that Talarico won those rural communities in Texas — the Aging Farmlands, Graying America, Rural Middle America. And the Democratic nominee’s background as a Presbyterian seminarian could help him speak to the more conservative voters who compose the Texas electorate, particularly in these rural places.

But look again at the charts above. Those rural communities produced far more votes in the Republican Primary than they did for the Democrats. Their voters are predisposed to vote Republican.

After all, the “turning Texas blue” storyline is well known because it’s talked about a lot but then doesn’t happen.

Still, Tuesday’s results do open the door a little wider to that possibility, with a candidate on the Democratic side that can appeal to different kinds of communities and the potential for divisions among Republicans in a runoff race.