Manufacturing and Agricultural Communities Show Signs of Economic Softness

Six months into his second time in office, polls show President Donald Trump has lost some of his mojo around the economy. Voters are less enamored with his job performance in that area than they once were, and consumer confidence has dipped since his inauguration.

A lot of that drop in support is likely linked to uncertainty around where the economy is going as Trump’s attitudes and actions around tariffs have shifted.

But the picture around jobs is also showing signs of softness, particularly in communities tied to manufacturing and agriculture in the American Communities Project.

Areas of Concern?

To be clear, the nation’s overall economic picture looks pretty strong. The stock market has recovered from its tariff slump in April. Inflation is still relatively in check. And the national unemployment rate is hovering around 4%. But look closer at those jobs numbers and a few areas of concern emerge.

When comparing this May to May 2024, the number of people in the workforce (that is the number of people actively looking for a job) and the number who are employed are up in most places. However, both numbers are actually down in three of the ACP’s community types: the Aging Farmlands, Middle Suburbs, and Rural Middle America.

Why is that? It may have something to do with the industries that drive those places.

The Aging Farmlands are all about agriculture. In these sparsely populated communities that run through the Great Plains and the center of the country, it’s normal to see tractors on the road.

Meanwhile, the Middle Suburbs and Rural Middle America have the largest share of manufacturing jobs in the ACP — at 16.5% and 17.4% respectively. Nationally, manufacturing jobs make up about 10% of all positions in the U.S. labor force, according to data from the U.S. Census’s 2023 American Community Survey.

Agriculture and manufacturing are two sectors of the economy that have taken some of the largest hits with the Trump tariffs and tougher immigration policies.

A decline in the number of people employed and in the labor force suggests people in those places may be feeling a little down about the economy. People tend to leave the workforce when they suspect opportunities are drying up.

And there may be reason for that, especially around manufacturing. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show there are about 90,000 fewer people employed in manufacturing than at this time last year.

Meaning in 2025 … and 2026

It’s still very early in the second Trump administration, of course, but the data here suggest potential challenges on the horizon in these places.

Despite talk of a new “Golden Age of Manufacturing,” the changes the White House seeks in the economy are not alterations that happen overnight or even over a few months. Any large-scale reshoring of manufacturing would likely take years.

Deciding to invest in a new production facility only comes after lots of discussion, research, and analysis. Those decisions are harder when the president keeps changing the tariff landscape.

And, as we discussed on this site, a new surge in manufacturing jobs is likely to be difficult for a variety of reasons, including automation.

Furthermore, there are political implications in these data.

First, all three of these community types are important parts of Trump’s political base. He won all of them by 13 percentage points or more in 2024. Their enthusiasm is a vital part of his support.

Second, there are currently six senate races that the Cook Political Report rates as “leans” or “toss ups” in 2026: Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Middle Suburb and Rural Middle America counties make up parts of four of those states — in some cases large parts. In close races, that could matter.

Again, these data aren’t conclusive of anything yet and, of course, midterm elections are still more than a year away. But if the shrinking labor force and job losses continue in these places or prove a harbinger of things to come, the impacts could be large.

U.S. elections often hinge on the state of the economy, and the signs of softness in these data are things to watch closely in the months ahead.